Saturday, October 1, 2022

Brier scores

 Brier scores reflect the accuracy of a probability forecast. The scores range from 0 to 1.0. A perfect prediction = 0 meaning complete or total accuracy.

Brier scores are named for Glenn W. Brier

For an example of Brier scores in research, see the metamemory study by Parlett-Pelleriti et al. (2021).

See also a discussion of Brier scores in the book, Noise.

Reference
Kahneman, D., Sibony, O., & Sunstein, C.R. (2021). Noise: A flaw in human judgment. New York: Hatchette.


Parlett-Pelleriti, C., Lin, G., Jones, M., Linstead, E. & Jaeggi, S. (2019). Exploring Age-Related Metamemory Differences using Modified Brier Scores and Hierarchical Clustering. Open Psychology, 1(1), 215-238.
https://doi.org/10.1515/psych-2018-0015




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