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Confirmation bias occurs when people look at an event or set of data and find evidence to support their beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Wason (1960) reported evidence that once research participants hypothesized a rule producing a number sequence, they did not consider alternatives.
Mynatt et al. (1977) reported evidence for a strong confirmation bias in hypothesis testing.
For a review of research, see Nickerson (1998). Nickerson traces the history of confirmation bias to the philosopher, Francis Bacon. Some notes from Nickerson follow.
We have a tendency to prefer evidence that supports our beliefs, which is known as my-side bias.
The bias to search for confirming evidence occurs even when people do not have a strong interest in the search.
Confirmation bias explains why general comments from mind-readers and predictions by psychics and astrologers appear true for those who ignore inaccurate descriptions or predictions or do not consider the probability that something would be true or come to pass regardless of the prediction.
Examples of confirmed expectations in research include ethnic, clinical, educational, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and stereotypes (p. 182).
Confirmation bias can worsen depression and paranoia.
Perceiving that a correlation between two events exists is another example of confirmation bias and is called an illusory correlation.
Confirmation bias may occur when people overestimate the ability to predict behavior based on a personality trait. Similarly, people may generalize from a person's action to think they always behave in a certain way (e.g., always angry, always kind), which is the illusion of consistency.
When people learn of a taxonomy, they tend to see other matters from that perspective. This phenomenon is called reification.
The primacy effect may help explain confirmation bias. That is, early information carries more weight in forming opinions. The primacy effect is related to the belief persistence phenomenon, which is the finding that once beliefs are formed, they are difficult to change regardless of contradictory evidence.
Our desire to favor select beliefs and ideas is an example of the Pollyanna Principle (Matlin & Stang, 1978).
There is evidence to suggest a positivity bias. That is, people find mentally easier to deal with positive findings than evaluate negative information.
More examples of confirmation bias
The historic hunt for evidence that people were witches, which resulted in the death of thousands.
Government and organizations create policies then search for evidence justifying the policies.
The history of medicine illustrates confirmation bias in diagnoses and the search for cures.
Jurors develop a bias toward a verdict before a trial is concluded. Final verdicts tend to be the same as the tentative verdicts.
References
Mynatt, C. R., Doherty, M. E., & Tweney, R. D. (1977). Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 29(1), 85–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/00335557743000053Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175–220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12, 129-140.
Geoffrey W. Sutton, PhD is Emeritus Professor of Psychology. He retired from a clinical practice and was credentialed in clinical neuropsychology and psychopharmacology. His website is www.suttong.com
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