First instinct fallacy

The first instinct fallacy is a belief that one should act on their first impression. 

Several studies indicated that students would do better on tests if they did not rely on their first instinct (Kruger et al., 2005). However, Couchman and his team (2016) found that confidence is a factor.

Coachman et al. (2016) suggest that the first answer on a test serves as an anchor, which creates a cognitive bias toward keeping the original answer. By recording a confidence rating with the answer, students have another piece of evidence to consider when reviewing their work.

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Justin Kruger and his colleagues found support for the first instinct fallacy in an oft quoted article from 2005. Following is their summary of results.

[Most people believe that they should avoid changing their answer when taking multiple-choice tests. Virtually all research on this topic, however, has suggested that this strategy is ill-founded: Most answer changes are from incorrect to correct, and people who change their answers usually improve their test scores. Why do people believe in this strategy if the data so strongly refute it? The authors argue that the belief is in part a product of counterfactual thinking. Changing an answer when one should have stuck with one’s original answer leads to more “if only . . .” self-recriminations than does sticking with one’s first instinct when one should have switched. As a consequence, instances of the former are more memorable than instances of the latter. This differential availability provides individuals with compelling (albeit illusory) personal evidence for the wisdom of always following their 1st instinct, with suboptimal test scores the result.]

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Justin Couchman and his team (2016) found that changing an answer or sticking with a first impression can both lead to correct answers. The outcome varies with the level of confidence students have in their response.

In the study, students provided their level of confidence and whether or not they changed their answers.

Here's a quote from their article( page 180).

[Should you ever revise your original choice, and if so, when? In both studies, there was a clear and consistent trend: On items that caused the most uncertainty, initial instincts were correct  less than half the time, general beliefs and post-exam assessments did not accurately reflect performance, but real-time metacognitive ratings did. Our data support the idea that – after a choice has been made and time has passed – people should consider revising answers when their recorded confidence in their initial answer was low, but not when confidence in their initial answer was high.]

The recommendation based on Couchman et al. (2016) would be to consider changing the low confidence answers.

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References

Couchman, J. J., Miller, N. E., Zmuda, S. J., Feather, K., & Schwartzmeyer, T. (2016). The instinct fallacy: The metacognition of answering and revising during college exams. Metacognition and Learning, 11(2), 171–185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-015-9140-8

Kruger J, Wirtz D, & Miller DT. (2005). Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 88(5),725-35. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.88.5.725.

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