Dunning Kruger effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias evident when people markedly overestimate their abilities or competencies compared to those of their peers or scores on relevant assessments.

Low performers exhibit poor judgment of their own knowledge, skills, and competencies as well as those of other people.

In other studies, the scientists found highly competent people underestimating their knowledge, abilities, and competencies.

But there have been criticisms.

As with most findings in science, there have been challenges to the conclusions drawn by Dunning and Kruger. For example, in 2022 Magnus and Peresetsky noted that metacognitive psychological explanations may not be needed. They refer to the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean (described by Francis Galton in 1886). In addition, the authors point out the role of boundary values. That is, if you score 97% on a test, you are close to 100% so the only prediction for future performance is likely at bit lower. Similarly, those who score near zero percent may be likely to predict at least some improvement in the future.

Magnus and Presetsky (2022) conducted a study. Following is their conclusion.

In this article, we have attempted to provide an explanation of the DK effect which does not require any psychological explanation. By specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account, we achieve a near-perfect fit, thus demonstrating that the DK effect is a statistical artifact. In other words: there is an effect, but it does not reflect human nature.

In their final paragraph, Magnus and Presetsky (2022) offer a suggestion about the belief in psychological explanations.

Perhaps the explanation for the persistence of this belief is: We have two facts, both true. First, we actually observe the DK effect. Second, if we compare people's ideas about their own ability with objective measurements of this ability, we find that people tend to overestimate themselves. Then, what is more natural than to think that these two statements are related to each other, in fact, that one causes the other? The problem is, they aren't.

Reference

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121

Magnus, J. R., & Peresetsky, A. A. (2022). A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Frontiers in psychology, 13, 840180. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180

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