The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias evident when people markedly overestimate their abilities or competencies compared to those of their peers or their scores on assessments.
Low performers exhibit poor judgment of their own knowledge, skills, and competencies as well as those of other people.
In other studies, the scientists found highly competent people underestimating their knowledge, abilities, and competencies.
But there have been criticisms of the Dunning-Kruger (DK) effect.
As with most findings in science, there
have been challenges to the conclusions drawn by Dunning and Kruger. For
example, in 2022 Magnus and Peresetsky noted that metacognitive psychological explanations
may not be needed. They refer to the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean (described by Francis Galton in 1886). In addition, the authors point
out the role of boundary values. That is, if you score 97% on a test, you are
close to 100% so the only prediction for future performance is likely a bit
lower. Similarly, those who score near zero percent may be likely to predict at
least some improvement in the future.
Magnus and Presetsky (2022) conducted a
study. Following is their conclusion.
In this article,
we have attempted to provide an explanation of the DK effect which does not
require any psychological explanation. By specifying a simple statistical model
which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account, we
achieve a near-perfect fit, thus demonstrating that the DK effect is a
statistical artifact. In other words: there is an effect, but it does not
reflect human nature.
In their final paragraph, Magnus and
Presetsky (2022) offer a suggestion about the belief in psychological
explanations.
Perhaps the
explanation for the persistence of this belief is: We have two facts, both
true. First, we actually observe the DK effect. Second, if we compare people's
ideas about their own ability with objective measurements of this ability, we
find that people tend to overestimate themselves. Then, what is more natural
than to think that these two statements are related to each other, in fact,
that one causes the other? The problem is, they aren't.
Reference
Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121Magnus, J. R., &
Peresetsky, A. A. (2022). A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger
Effect. Frontiers in psychology, 13, 840180. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180
Please check out my website www.suttong.com
and see my books on AMAZON or GOOGLE
STORE
Also,
consider connecting with me on FACEBOOK Geoff W. Sutton
You can read many published articles at no charge:
Academia Geoff W Sutton ResearchGate
Geoffrey
W Sutton
If you or your organization conducts research, consider Creating Surveys --
available on AMAZON.
Thank you.